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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">zldm</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Заводская лаборатория. Диагностика материалов</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Industrial laboratory. Diagnostics of materials</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1028-6861</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2588-0187</issn><publisher><publisher-name>ООО «Издательство «ТЕСТ-ЗЛ»</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">zldm-225</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>МАТЕМАТИЧЕСКИЕ МЕТОДЫ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>MATHEMATICAL METHODS OF INVESTIGATION</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>ВЫБОР ОПТИМАЛЬНОГО НАБОРА ПРИЗНАКОВ ИЗ МУЛЬТИКОРРЕЛИРУЮЩЕГО МНОЖЕСТВА В ЗАДАЧЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Robust Selection of Multicollinear Features in Forecasting</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Нейчев</surname><given-names>Р. Г.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Neichev</surname><given-names>R. G.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">neychev@phystech.edu</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Катруца</surname><given-names>А. М.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Katrutsa</surname><given-names>A. M.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">amkatrutsa@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Стрижов</surname><given-names>В. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Strizhov</surname><given-names>V. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">strijov@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff xml:lang="ru" id="aff-1"><institution>Московский физико-технический институт</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff><aff xml:lang="ru" id="aff-2"><institution>Вычислительный центр РАН им. Дородницына</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2016</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>01</day><month>03</month><year>2016</year></pub-date><volume>82</volume><issue>3</issue><fpage>68</fpage><lpage>74</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Нейчев Р.Г., Катруца А.М., Стрижов В.В., 2016</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2016</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Нейчев Р.Г., Катруца А.М., Стрижов В.В.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Neichev R.G., Katrutsa A.M., Strizhov V.V.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.zldm.ru/jour/article/view/225">https://www.zldm.ru/jour/article/view/225</self-uri><abstract><p>Рассмотрена проблема прогнозирования временных рядов. Для получения устойчивого прогноза предложено рассматривать входные временные ряды как матрицу объект-признак и использовать отбор признаков. В условиях мультиколлинеарности признаков необходим критерий для ее обнаружения. Для этого применяли подход, основанный на методе Белсли. Исключение коррелирующих признаков при отборе позволяет сократить размерность задачи и получить устойчивые оценки параметров модели. Для отбора признаков предложен метод добавления и удаления признаков. В качестве практической проверки данного метода в ходе вычислительного эксперимента решена задача прогнозирования почасовых значений цен на электроэнергию. Эксперименты проведены на реальных данных о ценах на электроэнергию в Германии.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>A problem of constructing a stable forecasting model using feature selection methods is considered. We propose to use a multicollinearity detection criterion which is necessary in the case of excessive number of features. Model is considered stable if small changes of the feature vector entail small changes of the target output vector. Mathematical definition of the model stability is also presented. Multicollinearity problem comes from correlation between features and causes loss of stability of the model. To study the properties of the detection criterion an additional research was undertaken which led to development of Belsley method. To prove the correctness and applicability of the approach to the problem of multicollinearity both theoretical reasoning and extra experiment are provided. The proposed criterion runs an algorithm to exclude correlated features, reduce dimensionality of the feature space and obtain robust estimations of the model parameters. The algorithm is based on step-regression method. The main idea is to add and remove the features consequently according to this criterion. The Lasso and LARS algorithms were chosen as the basic ones to compare with. The computational experiment is used to study an hourly-price forecasting curve problem with the proposed and the basic (reference) algorithms. The experiment is carried out using real time series of the German electricity tariffs.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>устойчивость модели</kwd><kwd>выбор признаков</kwd><kwd>метод Белсли</kwd><kwd>почасовое прогнозирование цен</kwd><kwd>прогнозирование временных рядов</kwd><kwd>метод добавления-удаления признаков</kwd><kwd>линейная регрессия</kwd><kwd>stability (sustainability) of the model</kwd><kwd>feature selection</kwd><kwd>Belsley method</kwd><kwd>hourly forecasting of prices</kwd><kwd>forecasting of time series</kwd><kwd>method of adding-removing of signs</kwd><kwd>linear regression</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Zinovyev A. Y., Gorban A. N., Sumner N. R. 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