Application of the theory of decision making to the development of complex technical systems (generalizing article)

Decision theory is an important component of the methods of mathematical research. We consider some aspects of the application of decision theory to the development of complex technical systems. The main attention is paid to the methods of forming the estimated indicators and then the estimates of the quality

and technical level of complex technical systems on their base. The use of decision theory in the development of an automated system for predicting and preventing aviation accidents is discussed. An approach to choosing the priority of R&D in the rocket and space industry is presented as an example. To implement the project management toolkit, five criteria are proposed for choosing the priority of projects taking into account the peculiarities of space activities in Russia. After forming a list of possible projects, it is necessary to set priorities, i.e. to arrange them in order of preference for implementation. To set priorities, we propose to use methods of expert assessments. The priorities are determined by a commission of experts appointed by the order of the head of the enterprise. In decision theory, two approaches have been developed to set priorities based on expert assessments — using direct comparison of the objects of the expertise and using expert assessments of the objects of the expertise by a set of factors. The first approach is implemented by comparing the ranks by the arithmetic mean, and then the medians of the ranks thus obtaining two auxiliary clustered rankings with subsequent construction of the matching ranking. Another way to find a consensus of the expert commission is based on the calculation of the Kemeny median of expert orderings. In the second approach, objects of the expertise are ordered not directly, but using the values of a certain set of factors. For each object of the expertise, the values of factors included in this list are determined (usually with the help of experts). The values of the factors are combined in an integral indicator of the priority of projects. To calculate the integral indicator, weighted Kolmogorov averages and weighted medians can be used.

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