Accident risk analysis of oil and gas facilities in Arctic climatic conditions

The probability of occurring emergency situations increases in conditions of severe climate of the Arctic. Therefore, addressing the problems related to the risk assessment of accidents at oil and gas facilities in the Arctic zones based on acceptable risk criteria is of particular importance. Uncontrollable development of emergency situations is followed by emission of a significant amount of oil products and constitutes serious ecological danger, and also can lead to considerable destructions and death of people resulted from fire and explosion. Therefore, the goal of the study is development of the methods for analysis and assessment of the risk of accidents in reservoirs and gas pipelines at low temperatures to increase the industrial safety of hazardous production facilities operating in conditions of the Arctic North. The results of brittle fracture analysis and accident risk assessment for reservoir and gas pipeline under arctic climatic conditions are presented. Statistical data processing of accidents allowed us to determine the rupture sources, develop a “fault tree” of brittle fracture of reservoirs, “event trees” of reservoir explosion and gas outflow from a gas pipeline, with allowance for the frequency of scenarios for quantitative risk assessment. Currently the probabilistic approach is considered one of the most promising. Accident statistics and experience of previous risk analyses can provide a useful contribution to the process of hazard identification. We focus on the scenario approach to the problems of hazard identification and assess the probability (frequency) of emergencies proceeding from the analysis and systematization of the statistical data on the accidents on reservoirs and gas pipelines at low ambient temperatures using the “event trees” and “fault trees” which provide determination of the most critical scenario and expected risk from accidents. Thus, risk assessment of accidents at hazardous production facilities in the Arctic zone using criteria of acceptable risk will allow estimation of hazards with unacceptable level of risk and development of recommendations and measures to reduce them.

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